Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, explains why the firm believes Bitcoin is entering an accumulation phase.
GALAXY SAYS BITCOIN IS IN ACCUMULATION PHASE AFTER JUNE LOW
*Galaxy Digital argues that improving price trends, resilient ETF demand and rising U.S. debt make Bitcoin a prime accumulation target. The firm cites technical signals and shifting institutional exposure to back its call.*
Galaxy Digital, the New York‑based crypto finance firm founded by billionaire Mike Novogratz, has declared the Bitcoin bear market over. In a note titled “Why now is the time to add and hold BTC,” Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research, points to June’s dip below $58,000 as the cycle low and argues the market has entered an accumulation phase that preceded every prior advance.
Bitcoin now trades around $80,000, a 38% rise from the June trough but still about 35% shy of its $126,000 record. The price sits just above the 50‑week moving average after 44 weeks below it, and five straight weekly closes have stayed above that line. Galaxy sees the move as a signal that “fast money has left, the base stayed,” and urges investors to accumulate while the asset’s fundamentals improve.
What does Galaxy’s technical analysis say?
Galaxy points to Bitcoin’s climb above its 50‑week moving average after 44 weeks below it. Five consecutive weekly closes above that average reinforce the view that the market bottomed in June. Thorn notes that a weekly close below $76,540, followed by a month‑long failure to recover, would undermine the thesis. The firm believes the current price action signals the start of an accumulation phase that historically precedes major advances.
Why does Galaxy view U.S. debt as a tailwind?
Rising U.S. government debt, persistent deficits and climbing interest costs, according to Galaxy, heighten Bitcoin’s appeal as a fixed‑supply asset. The firm argues that as fiscal pressures mount, investors seek stores of value that are not tied to sovereign credit. This macro backdrop, combined with the technical recovery, strengthens the case for adding Bitcoin to portfolios now.
How have institutional positions shifted?
Asset managers’ net long exposure through CME Bitcoin futures fell 57% from the week of the record high, indicating fast money’s exit. Major trading firms also trimmed ETF holdings. In contrast, spot Bitcoin ETFs added 87,000 BTC after the June low, suggesting renewed directional demand as arbitrage activity waned. Thorn interprets the shift as “the fast money has left, the base stayed, and everything else is priced for perfection.”
What risks could derail the recovery?
Galaxy acknowledges broader market declines, AI‑related disruption and quantum computing as potential threats. A technical breach—weekly close under $76,540 with no recovery within a month—would challenge the bullish outlook. The firm also flags the possibility of renewed bearish sentiment if price stalls near $80,000, a level that has already drawn warnings of a fresh crash from some market participants.
Frequently asked questions
When did Galaxy say the Bitcoin bear market ended?
Galaxy says the bear market likely ended in June, when Bitcoin fell below $58,000.
How much Bitcoin did spot ETFs add after the June low?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs added 87,000 BTC following the June low, indicating renewed directional demand.
What price level would challenge Galaxy’s technical thesis?
A weekly close below $76,540, followed by a failure to recover within a month, would challenge Galaxy’s technical outlook.
Galaxy’s thesis hinges on technical resilience and macro pressure that favors a scarce, non‑sovereign store of value. If Bitcoin can hold above $76,540 and sustain the current institutional inflow, the firm expects a recovery toward its $126,000 peak. A breach of that level or a resurgence of fast‑money selling could reverse the momentum, leaving investors to watch whether the accumulation phase truly ignites a new rally.
Sources: CoinDesk article "Now is the time to accumulate bitcoin, Galaxy says" (Oct 27, 2026)