Agnes Shikoli points to a six‑foot wall flooded in March, a stark reminder of the danger looming with the upcoming El Niño.
KENYA'S KIBERA FACES DEADLY FLOODS AS EL NIÑO STRENGTHENS
*Kenyan officials warn the 2026 El Niño could be among the strongest on record. Flood‑prone informal settlements like Kibera sit inches from the Ngong River, with drainage systems decades old and under‑funded. The human toll could rise without massive upgrades.*
Kenya braces for a potentially historic El Niño as the short rainy season looms. Meteorologists warn the 2026 event could be one of the strongest on record, bringing torrential rains to the country’s already vulnerable low‑lying areas. In Nairobi, the threat is most acute for informal settlements that hug the Ngong River, where past floods have already claimed more than 60 lives.
Residents of Kibera, Africa’s largest slum, live in houses built of corrugated iron just metres from the river’s edge. The community still bears the scars of March floods—water‑logged walls, a broken television, and the memory of a sister who died by electrocution when her home flooded. With the forecasted El Niño intensifying, families like Shikoli’s fear a repeat of the devastation that could “kill us” if the water returns.
What is driving Kenya’s flood risk this season?
Forecasters say this year’s El Niño may rank among the strongest on record, amplifying the short rainy season that runs October to December. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development warned in September of an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño for October–December 2026. Meteorologists link the threat to a Pacific El Niño combined with a positive Indian Ocean dipole, a pattern that produced severe rains in the 1997‑1998 event. In Nairobi, the Ngong River swells as rain falls, and blocked drains force water onto streets and informal settlements. The result is a perfect storm of climate and crumbling infrastructure.
How are residents like Agnes Shikoli coping?
Agnes Shikoli, 62, lives in Kibera, a sprawling informal settlement perched a few metres from the Ngong River. She points to a six‑foot (1.8 m) corrugated‑iron wall that was flooded in March, still stained by water. Her sister, 58‑year‑old Beatrice Khalayi, died in earlier floods, listed among more than 60 nationwide deaths. Shikoli says, “It can kill us. These houses aren’t made of stone; they can fall on us, or the water can drown us.” Residents now watch high‑visibility crews shovelling rubbish from the riverbed, part of the Climate Worx programme under President William Ruto, hoping to keep the next surge at bay.
Why are Nairobi’s drains a ticking time bomb?
Nairobi’s drainage network was designed 30 years ago for a population of about 2.5 million. Today the city handles roughly 7 million people by day and 5.5 million at night. Bramwell Simiyu, Nairobi County disaster management chief, says the system has been “untouched for many years.” Blocked sewers and clogged drains were blamed for the high death toll after earlier floods, as excess rain had nowhere to escape. The city’s three major rivers cut across hilly terrain, and informal settlements sit on the slopes, making flash floods especially lethal. Simiyu estimates up to 100,000 people in low‑income settlements could be at risk, with a moderate scenario affecting about 5,000 households or 20,000 people.
What does the government plan to do, and can it afford it?
The Nairobi River Basin Regeneration programme recommends creating buffers along rivers and “humane relocation” of vulnerable communities. Simiyu says relocation would move families to 167 designated holding grounds stocked with relief food and supplies. Upgrading the entire sewerage and drainage system would cost up to $192 million (£143 million). Both the cash‑strapped national treasury and the city council have shown little capacity to raise that sum. Without the investment, the risk of repeat fatalities remains high, even as climate forecasts warn of intensified rains in November, the peak month of the short rainy season.
Frequently asked questions
How likely is a strong El Niño in Kenya this year?
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development warned in September of an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño during October–December 2026.
How many people could be affected by floods in Nairobi’s informal settlements?
Nairobi County officials say up to about 100,000 people are at risk in low‑income settlements, with a moderate projection of about 5,000 households or 20,000 people.
What cost is estimated to upgrade Nairobi’s drainage system?
Upgrading the sewerage and drainage system entirely is estimated to require up to $192 million (£143 million).
Kenya’s battle against El Niño‑driven floods hinges on infrastructure that has not kept pace with a city that now swells to millions. Without a $192 million overhaul, blocked drains and riverside shanties will continue to turn heavy rain into a death sentence. The coming weeks will test whether Nairobi’s emergency crews and relocation plans can stem a tide that threatens up to 100,000 lives.
Sources: BBC World News